The first four months of 2026 will be recorded in the memory of the peoples of the Global South as the period in which contemporary fascism abandoned the last vestiges of hypocrisy. Far from being a mere historical replica of the interwar regimes, this phenomenon has evolved into a transnational architecture of domination led by the elites of the United States and their strategic partners —a hybrid, financialized, algorithmic, and transnational authoritarianism that feeds on digital polarization, institutional capture from within, the commodification of security, and the tacit alliance between military-industrial complexes, technological oligarchies, and reactionary governments—where the threat and coercive use of force have progressively replaced any operative vestige of international law.
The UN and international laws are not ignored out of carelessness or institutional incompetence; they are subjected to a systematic emptying, selectively instrumentalized, and neutralized when they collide with the strategic interests of the hegemonic center. De facto, the law of the strongest prevails, but it is masked in narratives of national security, financial stability, protection of human rights, and other fallacies that function as juridical smokescreens. What until recently was presented as “diplomatic pressure” or “selective sanctions” has been transformed, in an accelerated and structural manner, into massive and arbitrary economic sanctions, direct or covert military intervention, de facto territorial occupation, and planned humanitarian asphyxiation.
From the rupture of the Venezuelan government on January 3 —with the kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, within the framework of “Operation Absolute Resolve”—to the unjustified and treacherous aggression by the United States and “Israel” against Iran, “Operation Epic Fury”, launched on February 28—which has also reached Lebanon as an object of aggression—the U.S. empire has synchronized its blows with a precision that seeks to eliminate all poles of resistance in a single movement.
However, at the beginning of May, the balance is not what Washington expected. It is true: some progressive States in Latin America have fallen or have been neutralized. Argentina has become a laboratory of the far right. Venezuela is under intervention. To them have been added other countries that have subordinated their foreign policies to Washington: Honduras, El Salvador, Ecuador, Chile, Paraguay, Costa Rica, Panama, the Dominican Republic, Bolivia, Guyana, and Trinidad and Tobago, all of which participated in the “Shield of the Americas” summit convened by Trump on March 7, sealing their alignment with the empire’s hemispheric strategy within an updated Monroe Doctrine. The dream of a powerful autonomous regional bloc, of ALBA, of UNASUR, has been dismantled, for the moment. An even greater threat now hangs over the region: Cuba and Nicaragua are in the direct line of fire.
But the peoples—that category which desk analysts often confuse with their governments—have not been defeated. On the contrary, in the most extreme adversity, they are discovering new forms of organization and new transnational alliances. Underlying them is a consciousness and a historical memory that fascism will never manage to erase. However, it is decisive that the revolutionary movements be capable of orienting and mobilizing them.
This article aims to provide a diagnosis and a strategic analysis of the situation, identifying the weaknesses that have cost dearly, the threats that are pending, but also the strengths that sustain the resistance and the opportunities that, if well leveraged, can change the course of history. It upholds a fundamental thesis that must be clear from the outset: the most progressive States themselves—even while being capitalist, as well as those that are part of the long-awaited phenomenon of multi-polarization—have the historical obligation to confront this rapidly evolving process of fascistization. Taking a passive, supposedly neutral, stance of “exclusively” national interest—if this were even possible in a globalized world—becomes a boomerang for everyone. Fascism prospers, intends to swallow the weakest and most helpless, but in the end will try to devour the entire planet. This happened with Hitler: he was allowed to advance until, far too late, a limit was imposed on him. Tens of millions of human beings died. History cannot repeat that grave error.
The weaknesses that fascism has exploited
No honest analysis can evade the internal responsibilities of the national and popular camp. The fascist offensive has not triumphed only because of its military or economic might; it has also triumphed because it found open doors, because it confused institutionality with legitimacy, and because it underestimated the enemy’s capacity to operate from within democratic structures.
The first and most painful weakness has been the confusion between the fate of a government and the fate of a people. For years, considerable sectors of the institutional left acted as if winning elections was enough to guarantee popular rights. Various Latin American governments prioritized institutional stability over grassroots mobilization. They sat down to negotiate with the empire, sometimes in good faith, while Washington prepared to strike. The result is well known: among other examples not mentioned, in Argentina, the punishment vote for the inherited crisis was capitalized on by a far-right with an anti-popular program. The created vacuum opened the opportunity for a figure like Javier Milei to assume the presidency. In Ecuador and Bolivia, the deep divisions between leftist and progressive sectors made it easier for the right to regain power, wasting transformation processes that had enjoyed broad popular support. This dynamic is not accidental: it responds to a pattern of institutional capture that contemporary fascism dominates with surgical precision, using formal legality as a shield while dismantling material sovereignty.
The second and omnipresent weakness has been the deficit in the cognitive war. In general terms, the institutional left has not managed to build an alternative communication network capable of breaking the information blockade in its entirety. Fascism has dominated broad bands of the narrative thanks to a media machine that presents the changes advocated by the right as “hopes”, aggressions as “defense”, occupations as “democratic restoration”, and genocide as “humanitarian conflict”. In this terrain, the disadvantage has been great: many peoples have lived in ignorance or have been cognitively manipulated by the right. However, the resistance is taking steps to reverse this situation, steps that must be much more effective. As has been formulated in other strategic analyses of the period, the battle for meanings is as decisive as the battle for material resources. Without cognitive sovereignty, there is no political sovereignty; without liberating education, there is no conscious citizenry; without culture as a common good, the market devours everything. Contemporary fascism not only bombards with missiles; it bombards with algorithms, with hyper-falsifications, with narratives of demobilization that fragment memory and convert indignation into passive consumption. Breaking this siege demands an autonomous, decentralized, and pedagogical communicational architecture, one that not only denounces, but also educates, organizes, and projects real alternatives.
The threats of the current situation
If internal weaknesses explain part of the defeat, external threats reveal the great magnitude of the challenge. May 2026 reveals a scenario of meticulously synchronized aggressions: geopolitics has become a single board of interconnected operations with no isolated fronts, and on that board, the siege on Cuba is closing with unprecedented pressure.
There are no isolated fronts. Washington and “Israel” coordinate their attacks in real time: while the absolute oil blockade asphyxiates Cuba and military intervention consolidates control over Venezuelan energy resources, the war against Iran seeks to fracture the Islamic Revolution, just as Lebanon is also an object of aggression on this same front. This synchronization is not improvised; it is the result of a doctrine of total war that combines economic pressure, direct intervention, institutional capture, and psychological warfare. The intimidation against Cuba is not veiled. On April 10, the Pentagon confirmed to USA Today that it has discreetly accelerated its contingency plans for a possible military operation on the island, preparing for various scenarios on the orders of President Trump. This dangerous escalation, aimed directly at our shores, adds to the unparalleled campaign of economic asphyxiation. On May 1, Donald Trump explicitly declared his intention to “take control of Cuba” imminently after the operations in Iran, suggesting that the deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln off the Cuban coast would suffice to force a surrender.
But perhaps the most subtle and lethal threat is humanitarian asphyxiation as a method of war. What is applied against Cuba—economic blockade plus energy blockade—is not just a “sanction”: it is a weapon designed to paralyze hospitals, transportation, and power generation. On April 30, Trump signed a new executive order that radically expands the blockade by imposing, for the first time, secondary sanctions. This means that any foreign company or bank, regardless of its country of origin, will be “sanctioned” if it carries out transactions with key sectors of the island, such as energy, mining, or financial services. This measure seeks to raise the legal and financial risk for anyone who, in any way, contributes to sustaining the island’s economy. The conversion of hunger into a weapon of war against the Cuban people has thus reached an unprecedented degree of sadism.
Similarly, the genocide and famine in Gaza are not a collateral effect; they are a strategic objective. The figures updated to May 2, 2026, are eloquent: more than 78,500 Palestinians murdered since October 2023, 98% of schools destroyed, 37 international humanitarian organizations whose operating licenses “Israel” has revoked. Beyond the murders, the conversion of hunger into a weapon of war has caused an unprecedented demographic crisis: a population contraction of 12% in Gaza since the beginning of the offensive. Contemporary fascism has reached the conclusion that one can attempt to break a people without needing to occupy every street: it is enough to cut off the essential resources for life, criminalize their existence, and present their extermination as the “collateral damage” of a supposed existential defense.
This imperial synchronization has followed a critical path that reveals both its method and its weakness. The energy blockade against Cuba and the aggression against Iran possibly would not have occurred if the public and unpunished genocide of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip had not been deployed, if “Operation Absolute Resolve” against Venezuela had not succeeded, and if a meeting between right-wing governments and President Trump to form the reactionary “Shield of the Americas” had not been possible. But the empire’s need to resort to this escalation of brute force is not a sign of structural strength, but of its internal crisis and growing dependence on extraterritorial coercion as the last resort of geopolitical control. When economic power lags, consensus breaks down, cultural hegemony loses its grip, and co-optation mechanisms fail, the final argument is force. And that is a symptom of historical decadence, not of victory. The thesis upheld here now gains all its weight: no State, no matter how progressive it may be, can remain neutral in the face of fascism’s advance. Passivity, the retreat into narrow national interests, is not a viable option, but a trap that accelerates one’s own destruction. Fascism does not stop at borders: it devours the weak, but in the end intends to swallow everything. The peoples must pressure their governments to break the inertia that paves the way for fascism. Because neutrality, in the reactionary offensive of our era, is not diplomacy: it is anticipated surrender.
The strengths and dignity of the resistance
And yet, in the midst of this somber picture, there are factors t
hat sustain hope and the will to fight. Because what this period has demonstrated is that peoples, unlike many States, are immune to capture. The fundamental distinction has become clear: there are States that can be taken, neutralized, placed at the service of the empire. However, peoples, when they maintain their organization and their consciousness, are not.
In Venezuela, with the advance of events, the impact on the people’s interests, and the interference with national sovereignty, an active and growing popular resistance is to be expected. It will not be the resistance that analysts might expect, with formal structures and visible leaderships; it will be a capillary resistance, of neighborhoods, of communities, sustaining networks of solidarity economy and revolutionary sectors of the intelligentsia, who will refuse to accept occupation as their destiny. In Argentina, social movements have taken to the streets with progressive force. In Colombia, peasant, indigenous, and Afro-descendant communities continue building popular power outside and supporting the State.
There are also States that still resist with a historical consciousness that the blockade cannot erode. Cuba and Nicaragua remain standing. Cuba, in particular, is not an isolated case in the imperial storm: it is a global strategic front, a laboratory of anti-imperialist resistance, and a litmus test for the viability of sovereign projects in the South. As researchers from the Transnational Institute, the Progressive International, and academics such as Isaac Saney have pointed out, defending Cuba is not an exercise in historical nostalgia or revolutionary romanticism; it is emancipatory geopolitics in its purest state. It is to understand that where a principle of self-determination is broken, the juridical and moral floor of all peoples is undermined. Cuba has faced the economic siege and the direct military threat with a demonstration of determination that deserves to be studied. On April 16, at the ceremony for the 65th anniversary of the declaration of the socialist character of the Revolution, President Miguel Diaz-Canel, referring to the possibility of a military aggression, was categorical: “ We do not want it, but it is our duty to prepare to avoid it and, if it were inevitable, to win it.” The Revolutionary Armed Forces maintain a high state of readiness and continue preparing for a prolonged war of resistance by the entire people.
Mexico, for its part, has demonstrated exceptional firmness in its principles and exemplary solidarity with Cuba, maintaining an independent stance that honors the finest traditions of Mexican foreign policy. Despite having suspended crude oil shipments in January, the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum has continued to send humanitarian aid through Navy vessels with food and other essential goods, and is actively working to restore fuel supplies to the island. This stance, which defends Mexico’s sovereign right to trade with Cuba without external interference, constitutes a benchmark of dignity for other countries in the region.
In the Middle East, Iran’s response has been an example of resistance that has constituted a turning point: the great brake on the overwhelming imperial advance. Far from fracturing after the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei and the damage caused by the military aggression launched on February 28, the Islamic Revolution demonstrated its impressive defensive capacity. “Operation True Promise 4”, with which the Iranian Armed Forces have responded to the aggression, reached 100 waves of retaliatory attacks, launching hundreds of ballistic and hypersonic missiles, as well as drones, against U.S. military bases throughout West Asia and Israeli positions in the occupied territories.
The assassination of the Leader achieved the opposite effect to what was sought: unified crowds took to the streets of Tehran, Qom, and Mashhad, and direct aggression strengthened popular determination and support for the government. The force of this response has been such that it has managed to fracture the synchronization between Washington and Tel Aviv, revealing growing tensions between the two. Although they launched the aggression as a coordinated operation, their objectives have diverged: while the White House seeks a negotiated exit that allows it to avoid a military quagmire, Netanyahu’s government is pressing to escalate hostilities. Far from weakening the Iranian position, this fracture confirms that the resistance has managed to impose its terms on the battlefield and at the negotiating table, forcing the empire to show its internal contradictions.
Lastly, the value of historical memory carries great weight. The peoples of Latin America possess a living memory of past resistance in the struggles for independence and against dictatorships and coups. This memory is a strategic asset that fascism tries to erase through hopelessness and disinformation, but it remains a potential reservoir of dignity and organization. In the same way, the memory of the Palestinian resistance, of southern Lebanon, and of the Islamic Revolution itself nourishes the determination of those who today face aggression in the Middle East. Historical memory is the firm ground where resistance takes root.
The cracks in the empire
Faced with this threatening panorama, it would be a fatal mistake to fall into pessimism. Because, in addition to the strategic potential of the resistance, fascism, as powerful as it may seem, suffers from serious contradictions that are the result of the terminal crisis of a system based on the so-called Pax Americana, which is dying in the face of the exhaustion of the extractivist-financial model and the advance of China and other established and emerging powers. March and April have shown cracks that can be exploited.
The first opportunity lies in the empire’s desperate attempt at overextension. The United States and “Israel” are waging wars on multiple fronts: the Middle East (Gaza, Iran, Lebanon), Latin America (siege on Cuba, interventionism in Venezuela), and the Pacific, where the strategic competition with China constitutes a priority that demands ever-increasing resources and has no solution within the current situation of the capitalist system. China cannot be surpassed; the trend will be the ever-increasing widening of the gap in favor of the Asian giant.
On the other hand, the use of tariffs and other pressures on the world is provoking conflicts within the United States itself and ruptures with its allies, who are already distancing themselves even from the war adventures of the U.S. and Israel. This overextension of offensives is generating internal contradictions in the metropolises. In the United States, the Senate has opened investigations into the immense hidden costs of “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran, and what is more significant, it is facing an increasingly massive opposition to the Trump administration with the “No Kings” movement. On March 28, more than 9 million people took to the streets in some 3,300 events across all 50 U.S. states, as well as in 16 European countries, to protest against the war, authoritarianism, and the Trump administration’s foreign policy. This figure, which doubles the mobilizations of the “No Kings” movement of June 2025, makes clear the severe internal contradictions of the empire and its geopolitical expansion, creating cracks that international solidarity can and must exploit. In “Israel”, soldiers’ families have started a movement against the eternal war, and the people are feeling on their own skin the effects of a destruction of their cities that increasingly resembles the devastation it has caused in Gaza.
The second opportunity is the reconfiguration of South American politics. The governments of Latin America that are evolving toward extreme positions in alliance with the U.S. will have to face internal crises because their populations suffer the consequences of the political, social, and economic measures derived from the consolidation of neoliberalism. The transnational articulation of popular movements has had recent milestones of relevance. In November 2025, Mar del Plata hosted an international meeting that brought together more than 150 representatives from 12 countries, convened by Alba Movimientos, the São Paulo Forum, the main Argentine trade union confederations, and the Coordinating Body of Trade Union Confederations of the Southern Cone. There, the defense of popular sovereignty and the rejection of the advance of the right wing in the region were ratified.
Around the campaign in support of Cuba, solidarity movements from all over the world are also grouping together, encouraging global anti-imperialist consciousness. The May Day celebration in Havana was an eloquent demonstration of this articulation: more than 800 friends from 38 countries and representatives of 152 trade union and solidarity organizations marched alongside more than half a million Cubans at the Anti-Imperialist Tribune, with the presence of Army General Raúl Castro and President Miguel Diaz-Canel. Delegations such as the Uruguayan one, which traveled with nearly fifty workers, students, and retirees loaded with 250 kilograms of medical supplies and powdered milk, demonstrate that concrete solidarity with Cuba is not a rhetorical gesture but a living and growing practice. These kinds of spaces, which recreate the memory of the “No to the FTAA” summit of 2005, open horizons for popular movements to regain the initiative in the streets.
A third opportunity lies in the refounding of South-South coordination on new bases. The Articulation of Social Movements toward ALBA (ALBA Movimientos), a network forged over more than two decades of continental anti-neoliberal and anti-imperialist struggle that brings together more than 400 organizations from 25 countries, has consolidated itself as a key space in this process. Described by Venezuelan diplomats as “the soul” of the ALBA project, it represents a direct people-to-people articulation that does not depend solely on progressive governments in power, which makes it more resilient and capable of direct action than traditional diplomatic channels.
In this same direction, organizations such as the Network of Intellectuals, Artists, and Social Movements in Defense of Humanity (REDH) have woven a solid fabric of intellectual and political solidarity. The preparations for the IV Continental Assembly of ALBA Movimientos, which is to be held in Havana from May 6 to 9, include initiatives such as the solidarity flotilla organized by the Landless Workers’ Movement of Brazil and more than 20 popular organizations, conceived as a symbolic act of denunciation of the blockade and of active support for the Cuban Revolution. In a context of direct military threat and economic asphyxiation, this Assembly—convened under the banner of being an “assembly in arms”—will not be just a forum, but an act of combative presence, a space to coordinate the global response to the imperial escalation.
Finally, in consistency with the above, there is an opportunity in the role being played by committed intellectuals and the independent press and networks. During March, intellectuals from across the region have used their platforms not only to denounce, but also to methodologically train thousands of militants in detecting disinformation operations and in building their own narratives. Figures like Wafica Ibrahim, director of the Spanish-language newsroom of Al Mayadeen, who continued her work even after losing her family members in the Israeli bombings, have become symbols that the word, when it is courageous, is also a weapon. That courage, however, is sometimes paid for with the highest price. For this reason, we must remember, among many others, the recent murders that have mourned the independent press, such as that of Fatima Ftouni, correspondent for Al Mayadeen, who fell in the line of duty alongside her colleagues Ali Shoeib, correspondent for Al-Manar, and Mohamad Ftouni, cameraman and brother of Fatima. Their sacrifices will constitute flags that will not be forgotten.
Toward a strategy: Lessons for moving forward
From this analysis, clear strategic lines emerge, which popular movements, committed intellectuals, and resisting States must consider. Stopping contemporary fascism is not achieved with isolated denunciations or the mechanical repetition of slogans; it is achieved with organization, theoretical clarity, transnational coordination, and historical patience.
First, it is necessary to overcome fragmentation. The fragmentation of the left and, consequently, of the popular camp has been one of the main causes of the defeats in numerous Latin American countries. It is urgent to shed sectarian protagonism and build regional coordination spaces that do not depend on specific governments but are based on the organized social base and the development of powerful communication tools. The unity of all movements is of decisive importance. The experience of ALBA Movimientos and REDH demonstrates that organic, decentralized, and multi-level articulation is the only antidote to the division that fascism exploits. Solidarity is not charity or welfare; it is political reciprocity, it is concrete internationalism, it is the understanding that oppression at one point on the planet is a latent threat to all others.
Second, it is imperative to critically review the Venezuelan experience to detect where the failures were and what are the risks incurred when the country’s doors are opened and negotiations with the empire are undertaken under conditions of disadvantage. The objective is to enrich revolutionary practice in Latin America. Sovereignty is not defended with expectations, but with preparation.
Third, solidarity must become concrete. Declarations of support and condemnations are necessary, but they are not sufficient. In the face of the asphyxiating blockade and the military threat against Cuba, it is necessary for the fleets of civil disobedience and the shipments from supportive countries to continue and multiply, breaking the siege with fuel, food, and medicine. The recent gesture by Russia, sending oil to Cuba in the tanker Anatoly Kolodkin, with 100,000 tons of crude, breaking the U.S. blockade, has transcendental and symbolic importance. It is an invitation for everyone to put a stop to the blockades and the aggressive fascist offensive. In the face of the genocide and the deliberate provocation of hunger in Gaza, attitudes are needed such as those Iran is demonstrating, taking the conflict to the regional sphere where the defense of Palestine is a central objective, as well as the continued sending of humanitarian shipments that arrive in defiance of the military blockade. Concrete solidarity has a multiplier effect: it not only alleviates suffering, but also shows that people-to-people and country-to-country coordination can overcome the barriers that the empire tries to impose.
Fourth, the cognitive war must be won. This implies two fronts: a defensive one, with technological tools that allow militants to detect deepfakes and disinformation operations; and an offensive one, with the construction of a continental network of alternative media that multiply the voices from the trenches. It is crucial to reach the people with appropriate messages so that they are not manipulated, as happened in Brazil with the support for Bolsonaro, in Argentina with the support for Milei, and in the rest of the cases. The peoples awaken if we are capable of mobilizing them in favor of revolutionary changes to satisfy their own interests, not those of the oligarchies. This is how the potential of the popular forces’ role is uncovered: inform, educate, and mobilize to build a consciousness that fascism cannot colonize.
Fifth, setting chauvinism aside, Cuba must be defended as an absolute strategic priority. Those who understand the history of Latin America know that this small archipelago is not just another country. Cuba is an advanced trench, historical consciousness made territory. Its fall, whether military or economic, would be a lethal blow that would postpone any possibility of rebuilding the popular camp in the region. Therefore, solidarity with Cuba is not a sentimental or timely gesture: it is the defense of the last continental trench.
Finally, we must refuse to bargain away our dignity. One of the bitterest lessons is that attempts at ‘dialogue’ or connivance with the empire, when undertaken under unacceptable pressure, in betrayal of principles and the legitimate interests of the people, and from a position of weakness, only facilitate defeat and subordination.
Contemporary fascism does not understand the language of concessions; it only understands the language of principles and organized force. The watchword must be clear: there is no negotiated exit that implies surrender or submission of sovereignty. As Fidel Castro said: “Not a single revolutionary principle is negotiated, independence is not negotiated, sovereignty is not negotiated, socialism is not negotiated.”
Resist united or succumb separately
At the beginning of May 2026, the balance is severe, and the emergency is absolute. Progressive States have been captured or neutralized. The empire has regained a hegemony in Latin America that seemed lost. The institutional left is going through its weakest moment since the 1990s. Fascism has shown its cruelest face: continuation of the genocide and famine in Gaza, intervention in Venezuela, and an asphyxiating siege against Cuba that has escalated to a threat of direct military intervention.
And yet, the peoples have not been defeated.
The lesson from Venezuela is bitter, and although the provisional government is trying to extract benefits for the people from the new relationship with the U.S., the reality is that the country is paying a high price. However, the lesson from Iran is of capital importance: it demonstrates that imperialism, with its powerful army and resources, can be contained; that it must be confronted without hesitation, with a mature and forceful response and an unbreakable will to fight.
But there is also another lesson, coming from Cuba, from Palestine, from the indigenous communities of Colombia, from the social movements in Brazil and Argentina, from the intransigent stances of Mexico: an organized people, with historical memory, with class consciousness, with leaderships that do not negotiate their dignity, can resist the worst aggressions and, in the end, triumph.
The difference between peoples and states is not an academic abstraction. It is a strategic axis. States can be captured. Institutional structures can be placed at the service of the empire. Governments can be neutralized or overthrown. But peoples, if they are well informed and educated, if they maintain their organization and their consciousness, are immortal as long as they keep their historical memory and their will to fight. History is not over. Fascism does not have the last word; at any rate, it will be the final moment of the empire. In every Cuban community that faces the blockade with ingenuity and dignity, in every popular mobilization that confronts subjugated governments, in every shipment of food that manages to reach Gaza defying the military siege, the outcome is being written. Because, as this analysis demonstrates, neutrality is anticipated surrender, but organized solidarity is the beginning of victory.
References
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