The devastating flash floods along the Nepal-Tibet border have already claimed the lives of almost 400 people and left 1,400 people out of contact. The majority are foreign citizens. Tens of thousands of Nepalis have been made homeless.
The enormous floods were originally thought to have been the result of an earthquake, but analysis from the U.S. Geological Survey confirms that they were triggered by a gigantic glacier collapsing onto the side of Langtang Lirung, a 7,000-metre mountain, before crashing down onto the valley floor.
This was registered as a tremor of 5.2 magnitude and sent a powerful surge of water, sediment and boulders down the Lhende Khola, Bhote Koshi and Trisuli rivers in central Nepal. The Trisuli was raised by nine metres in about 30 minutes.
Infrastructure has been badly damaged, including bridges being swept away, roads being torn apart and transmission lines cut. This is not the first time Nepal has experienced similar avalanches, particularly since 2021, nearly all of which have happened during the monsoon season.
Some scientists point to the uncertainties around the exact cause of the disaster and the role of climate change. However, there are some certainties we can point to. Himalayan glaciers are losing ice at double the rate since 2000, according to scientists at ICIMOD, a regional intergovernmental research centre.
As many as 28 glacial lakes in Nepal are increasingly under threat from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF), causing large-scale landscape and regional climatic changes. Globally, around 15 million people could be affected by glacial lake flooding.
The thawing permafrost in what is known as the world’s ‘third pole’—because the glaciers contain the largest reserves of freshwater outside the Arctic and Antarctic—is exposing landscapes to increased erosion and slope instability. This part of the cryosphere also heavily influences global climate patterns and is extremely vulnerable to rising temperatures.
Mountainous regions are also among the most rapidly changing environments due to permafrost degradation. The active layer of permafrost—the top layer of soil that thaws and refreezes annually—is increasing by as much as 90% in mountainous regions. As that ground thaws overall, both carbon dioxide and methane are released into the atmosphere, the latter being 30 times more potent as a greenhouse gas.
Meltwater from the glaciers feeds rivers across Nepal, China, India and Pakistan, which billions of people rely on. The problem in the Himalayas is that as temperatures rise, melting glaciers can make rivers overflow. Overall, however, shrinking glaciers will lead to less access to water, particularly during dry seasons.
No solution from world leaders
There are also a few truths that should be clear by now, not only about this tragedy but by extreme climate more generally. For any long-term solution, governments obviously have to be cutting emissions completely and immediately, which includes either shutting down or repurposing fossil fuel infrastructure.
But we know this is far from the reality. As extreme weather events become more frequent, it is clear that governments, though they have the capacity, lack the political will to respond in the way that they should. It is in their interests in terms of basic survival to do so, but not in their class interests.
The UK government, for example, in its much-delayed and abridged Joint Intelligence Committee report on biodiversity loss and national security released earlier this year, identified the Himalayas as having a realistic possibility of collapse beginning in 2030. But rather than concentrating resources on mitigating ecosystem collapse and adapting to its immediate effects, national security concerns are driving the frenzy towards defence expenditure. This expenditure will only exacerbate the crisis.
As for Nepal, another flood could be imminent. Early-warning systems and disaster preparedness are crucial. Perhaps even more important is understanding that as people suffering the frontline consequences of these events are picking up the pieces, they are also central to forcing governments to act.