The launch of the Gaza war in October 2023 and the ensuing genocide puzzled many around the globe for different reasons. Some in the Arab world and elsewhere were perplexed that the West—particularly the US, Israel’s biggest sponsor—seemed “helpless” and “unable” to stop Israel and enforce a ceasefire for more than a year.
Conclusions were drawn that Israel controls the U.S., or that the U.S. is too weak to control Israel. But Israel’s actions are very much aligned with the interests of the U.S., an insecure global hegemon in decline, as it tries to assert its power in the face of international and regional challenges.
The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East and beyond is undergoing profound shifts, driven by military conflicts, economic pressures and strategic realignments. These changes have significant implications for regional and global actors, reshaping the balance of power.
The steady decline of absolute U.S. dominance has been evident since the 2008 financial crisis and the defeats in Iraq and Afghanistan, alongside increasing global resistance to American economic and military policies.
One does not have to be a political economist to understand that political and military power stem from a nation’s wealth and economic abilities. In turn, these powers are used to safeguard and increase such wealth.
The U.S. economy’s contribution to the global GDP, which reached 40 percent at the height of the Cold War, has been cut in half, while China’s share rose in that period from less than two percent to almost 20 percent. It will likely overtake the U.S. economy in the near future.
The Chinese financial sector, once insignificant in global markets, now plays a critical role, with the country’s foreign investments and influence expanding rapidly across Asia and Africa.
China rising
Despite U.S. initiatives such as export controls to limit China’s ability to acquire and produce advanced computing technologies, China’s rapid progress in the field is challenging U.S. dominance. Chinese companies have made significant strides in the semiconductor sector, posing a direct challenge to established U.S. and South Korean chipmakers.
Chinese tech firms are also developing advanced AI models that rival their U.S. counterparts, underscoring China’s resilience and innovation despite U.S. restrictions. China’s economic expansion has been accompanied by increased military spending, with its official defence budget second only to the US.
Moreover, Russia’s resurgence as a military power under President Vladimir Putin, along with its expanding strategic footprint, have further weakened the unipolar dominance that the U.S. once enjoyed.
At the same time, regional powers are asserting themselves in new ways. The growing influence of countries such as Iran, Turkey, the UAE and Saudi Arabia reflects a broader trend of regional actors seeking to expand their geopolitical reach.
Unlike in previous decades, when these states acted within U.S.-dominated frameworks, they are now pursuing more independent and, at times, conflicting strategies. This shift signals a transformation in how power is distributed across the Middle East, potentially opening space for alternative alliances and strategic calculations.
Faced with these challenges, U.S. ruling elites—whether Democrat or Republican—are responding with more hawkish diplomacy, trade wars and military interventions to reassert their dominance and weaken their rivals. This translates into crossing previously acknowledged red lines, and changing the rules of engagement.
Hyper-aggression
One example is the Ukraine war, where the U.S. alone has spent more than $183bn to counter Putin, after threatening to expand Nato to Russia’s borders. This is not limited to finances and defensive hardware: in a significant policy shift, former President Joe Biden last year authorised Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles to strike targets within Russian territory.
Such escalation is not a sign of a confident imperial power, but rather one that is desperately parading its might, and risking a nuclear showdown in the process.
The hyper-aggression of Israel’s far-right government during the recent war on Gaza occurred because the U.S. allowed, enabled, financed and armed it. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions aligned with U.S. strategic goals in the region, and was a much-needed show of American strength directed at China.
Speaking at the White House last week, Netanyahu bragged: “Well, Mr President, [Ismail] Haniyeh is gone, [Yahya] Sinwar is gone, [Hassan] Nasrallah is gone, we’ve devastated Hamas, decimated Hezbollah, destroyed [former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad]’s remaining armaments, and we crippled Iran’s air defences. In doing this, we’ve defeated some of America’s worst enemies. We took out terrorists who were wanted for decades for shedding rivers of American blood, including 241 marines murdered in Beirut.”
Israel has again proved itself indispensable for U.S. imperial interests in the region. Isn’t destroying—or at least crippling—Hamas and Hezbollah something the U.S. has long sought to achieve? Isn’t containing Iran’s influence in the region a goal the U.S. has been desperately trying to accomplish?
Israel’s ability to fight simultaneously on different fronts against Washington’s enemies in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Yemen, while carrying out a genocide in Gaza, is precisely what the U.S. establishment—Democrat and Republican—needs to send a message to its global rivals and unruly proxies: Washington is still the hegemon.
Global solidarity
The picture may look bleak in the short term. Trump has unconditionally backed Israeli plans for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. The Palestinian and Lebanese resistance movements have suffered crippling blows. Authoritarian Arab regimes, most notably Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s, have managed to play their cards well, receiving a financial lifeline from western powers.
But the war on Gaza has also triggered some of the most vigorous social protests in the U.S. and across the West since the Vietnam War. Millions in the Global North have taken to the streets to protest their governments’ complicity in genocide, ultimately colliding with their domestic power structures.
Scenes of police brutality and crackdowns on free speech in European and North American cities bring to mind similar abuses long associated with Global South autocracies.
New layers of young people in the West have been politicised and radicalised by the Palestinian cause, while other social movements, most notably climate justice, have fostered bridges and alliances with Palestine solidarity campaigners. Such convergence in the West, the heart of the beast, has not been seen on such a scale since the 1960s.
In the Middle East, the story is also far from over. The recent crippling blows received by the resistance axis are nothing new; Palestinian resistance groups have faced a series of defeats over the past century, but after each setback, they regroup, rebuild and resume fighting.
But dismantling an apartheid regime armed and backed by western superpowers cannot be achieved solely through armed struggle, no matter how heroic. This will have to involve broad regional change from below in the Middle East, and pressure from social movements across the Global North.
The liberation of Jerusalem will pass through Cairo, Beirut, Amman and Damascus—and Washington, London, Berlin and Paris.
Hossam el-Hamalawy is a journalist and scholar-activist who researches the Egyptian military and security services.