According to the Unified Rules of Boxing issued by the U.S. Association of Boxing Commissions and Combative Sports, when the bell sounds for the end of each round, there is a “rest period” before the boxers resume their fight, or one retires too hurt to continue.
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran which President Donald Trump (lead image, left, right) has congratulated himself for arranging is the bell sounding for the rest period to begin.
Iran’s rope-a-dope strategy allows rest periods. But for this strategy to succeed, the rest periods must be too short for Israel to be re-supplied by the U.S., Germany and other allies, compared to the re-supply arrangements which Iran is now trying to make with Russia, China, North Korea and other sources.
Since Trump’s first announcement allowed Israel and Iran to continue striking each other for six hours, his deadline was roughly 7 am Teheran time today, June 24. In reply, Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Foreign Minister, announced “there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Teheran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.”
According to Trump, “Israel & Iran came to me, almost simultaneously, and said, ‘PEACE!’” Trump has then claimed he had forced them.
We couldn’t have made today’s ‘deal’ without the talent and courage of our great B-2 pilots, and all of those associated with that operation. In a certain and very ironic way, that perfect ‘hit’, late in the evening, brought everyone together, and the deal was made!!!
Sources in Moscow say the terms of the Trump “deal” are quite different.
On the one hand, according to the sources, Trump understands that unless he orders a halt to U.S. arms supplies and battlefield intelligence to the regime in Kiev, Russia will not halt its arms supplies and intelligence-sharing with Iran. The sources add that for the time being Iran is not requesting fresh Russian aid.
Several individuals have been moved under Russian protection; these are individuals and families who have been moved into Russia. North Korean deliveries have been crucial in the run-up–they are basically Chinese. So Iran has not been lacking. They have been ready. Also, they have the capacity to fire several large missiles per day for several weeks, if not months, which the Israelis and Americans cannot stop. These will get through to Israel’s water, gas, and electricity plants, other fuel supplies, and ports.
The assessment in Moscow is that Iran has demonstrated it has escalation control for the long term, and that in the short term Israel needs U.S. re-supply, re-financing, and recovery more urgently than Iran. In exchange for Trump’s “ceasefire” to meet the Israeli requests, President Vladimir Putin has communicated that Trump must do nothing to block the acceleration of Russia’s offensive in the Ukraine.
When Foreign Minister Araghchi met President Putin at the Kremlin on Monday, Putin was accompanied for the first time by the head of military intelligence (GRU), Admiral Igor Kostyukov. Kostyukov was also a lead figure in the Russian negotiating team for the last round of Istanbul negotiations with the Ukrainians.
Front: President Putin, Foreign Minister Araghchi; back, Admiral Kostyukov, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. For the full list of participants, click here.
In the Kremlin website’s record of remarks, Putin did not mention Israel or the U.S. as the attacker:
The completely unprovoked act of aggression against Iran is without foundation or justification. Russia has long-standing, strong, and trustworthy relations with Iran, and we are committed to supporting the Iranian people through our continued efforts.
Araghchi’s reply was more explicit.
As you are well aware, the level of escalation continues to grow by the day. Unfortunately, we have come under attack—not only from Israel, but also from the United States, which has chosen to strike our facilities. These acts of aggression by Israel and the U.S. are entirely illegitimate and in violation of international law and established norms. We are now defending our sovereignty and our country, and our defence is fully legitimate. We are grateful to our Russian colleagues and friends for their principled stance and for their resolute condemnation of these acts of aggression. Today, Russia stands on the right side of history and of international law… I hope we will have the opportunity today to discuss the full range of issues related to these developments.
The closed-door discussion then focused on the military and diplomatic proposals which Araghchi tabled.
For Putin, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said after the meeting that the President continues to balance his approach between Israel and Iran. “Iran and Israel have completely different positions”, Peskov said, “the situation is very tense.” Yury Ushakov, foreign policy advisor to Putin who was also present, has not given a public read-out.
The semi-public debate outside the Kremlin walls is critical of the “balanced approach”. The most direct expression of this came the day before, on June 22, from Dmitry Medvedev, currently deputy secretary of the Security Council, who published on his Telegram channel a 10-point attack on both the U.S. and Israel, and implied Russian support for Iran to develop nuclear-armed deterrence against future war threats.
How seriously the Trump Administration understood this to be was signalled when Trump himself followed with an attempt to put Medvedev in his place: “Did he really say that or, is it just a figment of my imagination? If he did say that, and, if confirmed, please let me know, IMMEDIATELY. The ‘N word’ should not be treated so casually. I guess that’s why Putin’s ‘THE BOSS.’” U.S. presidents never address foreign officials at Medvedev’s current rank.
What U.S. and Russian sources understand to be the pressing problem of the “rest period” is that Iran, China, North Korea, and Russia will now concert their efforts to open the railroad connection through Pakistan and Turkmenistan for military supplies. The Caspian Sea and Turkmenbashi-Sarakhs gateways for such a connection were reported here.
A well-informed source adds: “Pakistan will play the Chinese side. And it will be a reliable route of Chinese supplies notwithstanding U.S. inducements and threats. Russians and Chinese must measure very carefully what, how, and how much is needed to prevent a collapse in Teheran. This means, not so much the preservation of the clerical order as the protection of Iran itself from partition.” Follow the U.S.-Israeli plan for regime change and partition of Iran starting here:
A Moscow source comments:
This [war] is not ending. This is not the beginning of any end either. The Iranians have been hurt and damaged; they are bleeding. No one should underestimate what’s been done to them. No one should underestimate the scale of the internal bleeding. But with that, the state, the Islamic Republic, however difficult as a partner, must remain. That’s the key. Russians and Chinese can’t do it by themselves. No amount of logistics and materiel can.
The problems of mutual and reciprocal distrust between Russia and Iran are centuries old, as reported here and here. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) publicly advertised this just hours before Araghchi arrived at the Kremlin.
Araghchi has had next to nothing to say publicly before he left Moscow for Turkmenistan.
Later in the same evening, Teheran reported that Iran’s Defense Minister, Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh, had telephoned Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. These Iranian signals indicate that Putin has given a green light for what he told Araghchi are “ways we might work together to navigate the current situation.”
In parallel, also late on Monday evening, Lavrov authorized the Foreign Ministry to issue a statement explicitly naming Israel and the U.S. together in a war for regime change in Teheran, and for “encroach[ment] on the sovereignty of the country” (diplospeak for partition):
Yevgeny Krutikov, a former GRU field officer who writes for Vzglyad, the Moscow platform for discussion of the strategic and operational options, has commented:
Israel has unleashed a hopeless and unneeded war, from which everyone is now looking for a way out so that everyone is not ashamed to look in the mirror. If in Tel Aviv it was believed that war is a competition of ‘who has more missiles’, suddenly it has turned out that the war with Iran is a more multifaceted phenomenon which Tel Aviv cannot cope with alone. So now everyone has become morose.
Russian sources will not go so far as to say that Iran has won escalation control from Israel, at least not yet. The sources also repeat how much punishment the rope-a-dope strategy has inflicted on the Iranians.
Russians know they are the only ones who can fight and deliver a comprehensive strategic defeat. Not even the Chinese can do as effectively what Russians are doing in the Ukraine. So now that Trump has entered the Iranian battlefield, it’s up to Putin to convince him to withdraw from both. Well, maybe not convince—persuade may be the better word. Come the NATO meeting [June 24-25], our eyes will be on whether Trump delivers Kiev’s capitulation to Russia’s terms, or we have to take it.