Germany, long a synonym for economic brawn and muscle, is beginning to recall words like lumbago or sciatica instead. Though still leading in Europe, and fourth in the world, it faces an economic mess, a political mess, and a mood of general stress. Schools lack repairs and teachers, clinics and hospitals lack staff, its key industry, making good cars, lacks customers. All sliding downhill. What’s moving up? Apartment rents, grocery prices, the fear of fascists. And oh yes, most speedily, the bank accounts of folks like Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, top man in that happy but exclusive club of armament makers. “We are one of the most fast-growing defense enterprises in the world and on the road to becoming global champion,” he boasts, and with good reason: since 2020 his company’s share price jumped more than 2000%, thanks to the Ukraine war. Some do prosper! For the others the economy, with a growth prospect at a low near 0.00%, is best symbolized by the Rhine water level, maybe soon navigable only for flatboats and scows. But Rheinmetall, the river’s namesake (Rhein in German) is selling tanks, artillery, shells, anti-aircraft guns and military trucks like hot cakes, while it expands, not just in Germany but in Italy, the USA … even in Ukraine.
That last word, with unlimited military spending, are major causes of German troubles. They helped provoke those sudden elections, long before the normal turnover, and may even have played a role in the shock two weeks ago for Friedrich Merz. Smugly certain of a victory vote as new chancellor in the new Bundestag, he was struck—or dumb-founded—by a defeat. His election relied on his own “Union” (a sisterhood of two Christian parties, often counted as one) and its new junior partner, the Social Democrats, adding up to a slim but seemingly sure-fire majority. But then 16 delegates voted against their own man, a first in Bundestag history! The result: turmoil! Since voting was secret we don’t know whether such disobedience was caused by personal grudges, political differences, or both. After hasty rallies, and no doubt angry arm-twisting, a second vote was held, everyone behaved and Merz won out. But it was a huge embarrassment for him—and a source of great Schadenfreude for all those with no love for this millionaire right-winger, once top man for BlackRock in Germany, a man full of hauteur if not hatred. And now the new boss!
German politics may seem complicated, especially to Americans used to a tightly baked-in two party system. True enough, the ballot sheet in the February election (as always with paper and pencil) was a laundry list of 29 parties! But most of them are what you might call hobby parties, getting less than 1 or 2%. Only five (counting the Christian Union as one) received the 5% needed to get seats in the Bundestag. And three of those, though not identical, are similar triplets.
The Christian Union of Merz, in a weak first place (at 28,6%), needed a partner for a majority in the Bundestag . It chose the Social Democrats, long-time rivals and with their puniest result in history (16,4%), thus pushing the once haughty Greens out of perky warm Cabinet armchairs and onto cold Opposition seats.
The new team now faces the slump. The Ukraine war meant finally bowing to U.S. pressure to cut inexpensive Russian fuel imports, piped in overland or under water (until stopped by that not-so-mysterious Baltic explosion, so knowingly predicted by Joe Biden.) Liquefied gas from the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Mexico (now called “Gulf of America” but just as expensive) cost far more and required expensive new port facilities. The loss of Russian trade, selling it cars, machine tools, vegetables, also hit hard. No-one knows how tough Trump’s tariff shenanigans will end up (Trump probably not either) but even if reduced they don’t look good for German export industries, always a key to its prosperity. Its lethargy, or hubris, in the world’s changing car market has also hit hard, especially faced by sharp competition from China. German-Ford and VW are shuttering departments, maybe sites—and face strikes, till now unheard of with their hitherto well-paid and content workers.
The new government’s planned solution, by no means new or exclusively German, has several components. A) Keep taxes low for the wealthy and their monopolies, even lower than now, allegedly to spur investment especially within Germany. B) Cut working people’s rights, incomes and benefits, as usual hitting the poorest most heavily. C) Deflect protest by blaming immigrants for causing lengthening waiting times for doctors or dentists, stuffing school benches with kids who can’t speak German, for lazily avoiding work but getting spoiled with public services at Germans’ expense, being rowdy—or being violent killers or rapists—all dwelt upon lovingly and lyingly by the media (and not only the “gutter press” or social media. (Does all this somehow ring familiar?)
More and more they agree on the answer to most problems: D), a drive towards war. But how can the public be won for this, especially in reluctant, still disadvantaged eastern Germany? Firstly with emotional appeals to continue the war in the Ukraine until victory—and barely concealed anxiety that Trump, Putin and finally Zelensky may reach some agreement after all and achieve peace. In what seems a coordinated campaign, the idea of a big future war is being increasingly accepted by most media and most politicians. With total disdain for both geography and common sense, they insist that if and when satanic Putin can devour Ukraine he will expand westward, heading straight toward our sacred Brandenburg Gate. That supposed threat, already bursting out of the subjunctive mood, requires ever more, ever moderner weapons, building up the army, navy and air force, maintaining, with or without Trump, the middle-range atomic missile bases in Germany capable of reaching and wrecking Moscow in minutes. It means strengthening highways, bridges, ports and airlines to carry heavy weapons, registering all Germans if possible, especially those of military age, and reviving the draft. All under the scary heading: “The Russians are coming!” For people with an ear or nose for history, the sound and smell of 1912-1914 and of the 1930s is reaching penetrating levels.
I found a symbol of this with a company I once worked for briefly. In beautiful, picturesque Görlitz at the Polish border, the town’s main enterprise, founded in 1849, was a top-rank manufacturer of double-decker coaches, sleeping cars and other specialized railroad cars. Nationalized in GDR days, with 5-6000 employees, it had a library, a big out-patient clinic, a “house of culture.” Privatized after German “unification” in 1990, it was bought, sold, bought, cut and cut and cut again, with all those amenities long since shut down and the town emptying out. Now at last it and Görlitz have new hope; making Leopard tanks, Puma tanks, Boxer tanks. The four-legged community may feel honored—and 400 or 500 workers will have work. Olaf Scholz, in one of his last days in office, was happy: “It is very good news that industrial jobs will be saved in Görlitz.” And the highway heading east through Poland will be enlarged to carry weightier loads. So may be the pockets and the accounts of men like Armin Papperger with his Rheinmetall or, in Görlitz, its “comrade-in-arms” Krauss-Maffei-Wegmann (now KMDS), also with over a century of experience in tanks and the like.
Merz and his Christians are loudest. But all those with any power go along, including the Greens, who are no longer are in power. Of course, they all want only to preserve freedom, democracy and the safe existence of “our Germany”.
Rearming costs billions. Barely hours before being replaced by the new Bundestag, the old one altered the constitution to dump the national debt ceiling und permit unlimited military purchases. The sky’s the limit! A previous, seemingly impossible goal of 2% of gross total product for arms can now soar to 3,5% and, if Trump has his way, to 5% for “self-defense against authoritarians.” That could mean 225 billion, almost half the total budget.
Where would all that money come from? Where else than from the pockets of the children, the sick, the jobless, the underpaid? “Work harder, more efficiently”—and longer! Get rid of the 40-hour work week, delay pension age, pay more into the medical care system, get less support if you lose your job, submit to even the worst low-wage substitute job! There are so many ways to skin a cat—or working people! And who’s to blame for all this? Most likely those illegal immigrants! Or maybe Putin again. Or “the disdain of authoritarian leaders for our democratic system—like in Berlin or Kyiv or Riyadh—or Gaza!
Is there no opposition to such frightening prospects?
Some seek opposition in Germany’s second strongest party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), chosen by an alarming 20.8% in February, double its 2021 result! It polls currently at 25%, neck and neck with the Union, and recently ahead of it, thus for a day Germany’s strongest party! They may support the AfD as a party which rejects more weapons for the Ukraine, and supports Putin against Zelensky, and thus consider it a peace party—and a hope for peace is stronger in the old GDR region than in the West, with less support for western Russophobia.
Many vote for AfD to oppose an unfeeling “Establishment” controlled by the wealthy, reflecting a lasting disillusionment of many East German with the capitalist freedom , democracy and “blossoming landscapes” promised as a reward for German unification. In Görlitz the AfD is by far the strongest party!
Perhaps the largest number support it because they, too, have been led to believe in anti-immigrant racism, a hatred of “others,”, especially “the Muslims,” with whom few have had any human contact.
Some feeling and misconceptions may be overcome; with hard-core racists and hatemongers it is rarely possible; these are outright fascists! And the AfD is definitely not a peace party, despite its stand on rapprochement with Putin and Russia. Extremely nationalistic (Hurrah for Germany!), it wants a big weapons build-up, the draft, and “traditional family traditions” with lots of German kids! And far lower taxes on the wealthy!
The AfD is a vigorous supporter of Netanyahu, even his war on Gaza and Palestine, for it shares his hatred of Muslims! Despite this, some AfD sectors betray well-preserved strains of old Hitlerian anti-Semitism. Though still embarrassingly extreme for many German and foreign leaders, and now facing an on-going debate on forbidding the party as too “extremist”( but with painfully open support from Vance, Musk and Rubio), the AfD is rather a reserve army ready at hand in case of need, such as genuine working-class opposition—like the Nazi party during the great depression from 1929 to 1933. And some in the Union are already doing some AfD-flirting, despite loud “fire-wall” rejection.
A counterforce was expected when Sahra Wagenknecht, a former Communist, a wonderful speaker and debater with great charisma and charm, broke away from the disastrously split and seemingly doomed party, the Linke (Left) to form a new party, using her very popular name, taking some of its best and brainiest members with it. Within ten short months this infant, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), grew tall and strong, achieving election results surprising for a newcomer, far ahead of its shrunken parent. Its main talking points: decided opposition to support for Zelensky’s Ukraine and a demand for negotiations and peace there. Opposition to Israeli mass annihilation and expansion. A rejection of dangerous missiles on German soil, most especially American ones! And a posture of protest against the Establishment, though without radical changes. But questions arose: its power structure seemed based on one leader who tried, not always with success, to impose her decisions over differing local tactics, with a related policy of top-level vetting of every single applicant for membership—”to keep out questionable or subversive entries.” The result: only a few hundred members to fight the campaign in February—and a tragically heart-breaking defeat, with 4,98!% of the vote—about 0.015% or 9500 votes short of the 5% needed to get into the Bundestag (out of some 50 million voters). It disputed the dubious results in court—but in vain. And BSW polling since then has been glued to 4% and may be weakening, even in two states where it is in the government (hence part of the establishment).
A main problem has been its position, similar to nearly all other parties, against immigration, and basically against immigrants, who Sahra believes should solve their problems in their home countries, not in problem-ridden Germany. Many saw this as a pragmatic attempt to win anti-immigrant voters away from the AfD. If so, it failed. They stayed with the AfD or the Union.
Turn this story on its head for that of the Linke! Down to a seemingly hopeless 3-4% last November, and doom, and suddenly facing an unexpected election, it changed gear completely. Knocking on some 60,000 doors in key areas and avoiding appeals or pressure it simply asked those who opened what they most wanted and centered its campaign on the response. It was almost always frightening rent increases, the lack of affordable housing, and prices, especially of groceries and heating. They offered advice centers, per internet or in person, for people needing advice and helped those fighting illegal rent increases. Especially in Berlin they promoted coordination with people of immigrant background, often Turkish or Kurdish, and adopted a newly fresh, clearly anti-establishment tone, breaking with attempts to look respectable in hopes of acceptance into the government as “really not radicals but good boys”. A new central figure was young Heidi Reichinnek, whose clothes, tattoos, fast-talking speech and forceful words and gestures were evidently just what many young Germans liked, watching her on Tiktok. When the votes were counted, the LINKEhad climbed within two months from 4% to 8.8%, it was national top vote-getter among women under 30, and it won an incredible first place (19.9 %) among Berlin voters! It won six Bundestag seats directly: the former Thuringian minister president Ramelow, a popular leader in Leipzig and four in Berlin, including one, with Turkish background, who was the first LINKE deputy elected in any formerly West German or West Berlin district. Because of proportional representation the party now has 64 Bundestag seats (from a total of 630). As usual, a majority (37) of the Linke deputies will be women.
One reason for Linke success was doubtless its refusal to join the other parties, including Wagenknecht’s, in playing to anti-immigrant prejudice. We are a class party, it was stressed (a return to forgotten roots)! Every working person is our comrade, we stand for international solidarity regardless of color or origin, and we fight together for their and our rights. Are there problems involved? Of course! But they can be overcome by spending not on weapons but on schools, home construction, recruiting new teachers and doctors, helping new-comers get training, jobs and homes!
Foreign policy was far more complicated, with disagreement about Israel and Palestine and about the Ukraine. But during the election campaign, it was agreed upon, these questions would be avoided ; they were not upmost in voters’ minds. This was a pragmatic decision, certainly, it was aimed at rescuing the party—and it worked.
At the party congress in late April, the situation was different. Some “reformist” party leaders lean towards NATO positions, others condemn the march into the Ukraine but view NATO, led by the USA and Germany, its top junior partner, as the main, most menacing perpetrators, eager for hegemony, in ways recalling Yeltsin, Yugoslavia , Maidan Square. Or even older models.
Regarding the other main disagreement, one delegate angrily defended Israel’s right to “self-defense” and attempted to “balance ” events in Gaza. In a heated response, another delegate stated: “It is not Israel’s right to existence which is threatened but, acutely, the lives of the Palestinians and the right of existence of Palestine!” On this issue, too, a sort of compromise was reached, clearly rejecting the virtual ultimatum of the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA), basically stamping any criticism of even immense Israeli atrocities as “anti-Semitic,” and used to silence any such criticism and endorsing instead the Jerusalem Declaration on Antisemitism, adopted by hundreds of academics, also Israelis, which defends the total right to criticism. In general compromise were agreed upon, surprisingly seen as necessary in a party calling itself “Left.”. But party co-chair Ines Schwerdtner could speak out: “Children in the Gaza strip are being purposely starved to death. We are the opposition to this. We are against cuts in help for Gaza, against sending arms, against war. There can be no double standards in regard to war criminals.”
In general the congress represented more than in many years a compromise, avoiding a split and leaving various tough, even basic questions for the future. There was agreement on limiting deputies and office-holders to three terms only, to expect—or require—to donate shares of their large salaries to good public purposes, and to turn attention far more to action in the streets, workshops, colleges and neighborhoods, with far more working people as candidates. There was a novel stress favoring good spirits in the party, friendliness, cultural activities—and even humor. In a way, the congress was a peaceful, even joyful celebration of the party’s rescue and success, with justified pride in the election success vote and joy that, within a few months, party membership shot up from less than 60,000 to over 120,000, mostly young people . The road ahead will hardly be free of obstacles and pot-holes—but there is finally new hope.
Even more! As opposed to the past drift towards reformism and status quo acceptance by too many leaders, we hear one new co-chair, Ines Schwerdtner, formerly editor of the German edition of Jacobin, urging that capitalism be replaced by an economic order which “no longer oppresses people but offers them dignity and health… That is the heart of our policy.”
She was seconded by the party’s new live wire in the Bundestag, Heidi Reischinnek: “Yes, we want to rid ourselves of an economic system in which the wealthy get wealthier and the poor ever poorer; where seniors must collect bottles for the deposit pennies, and children sit in school classes with hungry stomachs. Where the jobless are duped, the many exploited, people lose their lives in hospitals because of the orientation to profit making… such a system has nothing in common with democracy, nothing whatsoever. …If it is radical to demand freedom and rights for everyone equally, then let us be radical. We must be radical in these times!
No, it is still not fully clear which direction this party will take. Or if some day the two parts will join together. But despite all the pitfalls there seems to be a genuine basis for left-wing hope and new, militant action—all so desperately needed in Germany, and its related friends and allies in many other countries inside and outside Europe!
Despite the length, of the above Bulletin, I add a short statement I recently sent to a friend of mine regarding the catastrophically worsening scene in Gaza:
Unspeakably horrible and heart-wrenching! How can millions of people see the pictures of fathers and mothers with tiny body bags, of little girls with amputated legs, of the continuing devastation of Gaza—its homes, hospitals, schools, culture—even its streets and refugee tent colonies, with the denial of food, water, fuel, medicine, sanitation—and not recall Hiroshima-Nagasaki-Tokyo, Korea, Vietnam and yes, Warsaw and its ghetto? How many have asked over the decades: “How could the Germans have closed their eyes to Nazi terror against Jews?” and then close their eyes to what is happening today? Our hearts go out to the courageous ones who protest—especially at the universities—but so many more are needed—here in Germany as in the USA! And in Israel!
Hearty greetings—No pasarán!