For China, it would be a good training experience in new waters. A look-see. And it would send a message that as we have chosen to become a U.S. proxy or vassal, the seas ahead could be very choppy for us.
China hawks are unable to understand the meaning of the Chinese circumnavigation of Australia. They don’t see, or much more likely, they don’t want to see what all this means. They are blinded by their own ignorance and prejudice about China.
These very modern Chinese vessels are a response to the provocation of AUKUS.
Our media keeps telling us of the importance of AUKUS for the defence of Australia. But AUKUS is not for the defence of Australia; it is to join with the U.S. to confront the Chinese on their coast in the South China Sea.
The Chinese are not just concerned about our purchase of old and expensive nuclear submarines. They would also be interested in the basing and construction of some of those submarines around our coast and in our maritime zone. So why not come and fly the flag and have a look?
With AUKUS and our Force Posture Agreement with the United States, China would be keen to see what we’re doing on behalf of the U.S., our erratic ally that is almost always at war, subverting other governments that disobey or invading if it sees fit as in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.
We get into U.S. wars time and time again. It is time we asserted our own nationhood and independence and stood back. We should not poke our nose into the Chinese domestic dispute over Taiwan.
We are also seeing more clearly in the last few weeks how unstable the U.S. has become.
A recent Australia Institute Poll of 2009 Australians told us that most Australians prefer a more independent foreign policy than prefer a closer alliance with the U.S. (44% v 35%). The poll also revealed that more Australians feel Donald Trump is a greater threat to peace than either Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping.
Even if the Chinese vessels are not picking up a great deal of intelligence, they are certainly giving us a message that they understand what AUKUS is about and also what Australia acting on behalf of the U.S. means. We are being given a taste of what will be in store for us in the future as we forfeit our sovereignty to the United States, the most dangerous and aggressive country in the world. Empires in decline are often very dangerous.
Consider the route of the Chinese vessels, first down our East Coast where we are likely to base our own submarines, if we finally get them. A chance for Beijing to learn more about our East Coast.
Then on to the Great Australian Bight and to have a look off the coast of South Australia and Adelaide where Australia’s SSN–AUKUS submarines–will be built or may be built.
And then onto the Indian Ocean and Perth where we are building a nuclear submarine base South of Perth for the U.S., and maybe for the UK.
Then up the West Australian coast to undertake some reconnaissance of the Cocos and Keeling Islands where there is a major upgrading of the airfield for Australian and U.S. aircraft in support of U.S. operations along the coast of China.
After the Obama/Gillard/Beazley stitch-up of Marines in Darwin, the U.S. expressed a keen interest in Cocos and Keeling. Cocos would support the giant U.S. base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
It is inland in the Northern Territory, but the Chinese vessels would also be interested in the build-up of airstrip and other facilities at Tindal to support the basing of six U.S. B-52 strategic bombers that are nuclear-capable and can easily strike China.
Then on to Darwin to show the Chinese flag and its interest in the U.S. Marines based there. This base, of course, was initially to be for the rotation of Marines who have now become a permanent feature.
China is deliberately showing the flag around our coast in a response to AUKUS. We will pay a price for acting as America’s proxy in our region. That cost will not be just financial. Our strategic costs and risks will also keep escalating.
The Chinese have taken the unprecedented step of sailing around Australia. We must live with the territory and risks AUKUS has created for us. We had better get used to it because there’s going to be a lot more of this as we fuse the Australian and U.S. Navies.
As former foreign minister Gareth Evans said recently,
Australia’s no-holds barred embrace of AUKUS is more likely than not to prove one of the worst defence and foreign policy decisions our country has made, not only putting at profound risk our sovereignty and independence, but generating more risk than reward for the very national security it promises to protect.
The navigation of Chinese naval vessels is just the beginning.
China has no interest in attacking Australia or even the United States, but it is concerned if we involve ourselves in supporting the U.S. Empire and hegemony in the South China Sea.
We are an active supporter of the U.S. in the South China Sea right now. Our Poseidon P-8A reconnaissance aircraft based in South Australia, and operating through Butterworth, Singapore, Manila and Darwin, operate along the Chinese coast, dropping sonar buoys to detect Chinese submarines in the South China Sea. Our media–Andrew Greene, Peter Hartcher, Justin Bassi and many others— would have a fit if Chinese aircraft were dropping sonar buoys off our coast.
Having learnt from two centuries of colonial domination and humiliation, China is determined that it must have a robust military for self defence.
Our reckless anti-China hawks see these Chinese vessels in isolation and as a sign of more Chinese aggression, but fail to understand the context. China is subtly responding to AUKUS. We seem unable to get the message. And many of our China “experts” in the media don’t want to get the message.
China has no interest in attacking us. It has enough problems domestically with 1.4 b people and 14 land borders. But Americans, looking through their rear vision mirrors at a rapidly growing China, expect that Beijing will act as aggressively as it itself has for over two centuries. Chinese history suggests otherwise.
We have chosen to be a proxy for the U.S. in our region against China, our major trading partner. What could be more unsustainable than acting as a proxy for the Americans in its determination to cripple or even attack China?
The next Chinese step might be submarines operating around our coast. We are already operating off China’s coast with our Poseidon aircraft dropping sonar buoys. So why wouldn’t China want to do the same on our coast?
AUKUS has set in motion an escalation that we will regret.
The Chinese vessels that have created such a media frenzy are just the beginning. With AUKUS, we will reap what we have sown.