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Iranian “Plots” and American Hubris
Calls by Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary Hillary Clinton to “unite the world in the isolation of and dealing with the Iranians,” in response to an alleged Iranian plot to kill Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador in Washington, reflect a hubristic misapprehension of reality. The Obama Administration mistakenly believes it can exploit the accusations for strategic […]
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The Key to Progress in Nuclear Diplomacy with Iran
We have long argued that there will not be a diplomatic resolution to the Iranian nuclear issue without explicit recognition — from the United States and other Western countries, first of all — of the Islamic Republic’s right to the full range of civil nuclear technologies and activities, including uranium enrichment. Two recent developments affirm […]
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The Race with Iran: Saudi Arabia’s Sectarian Card
Four months ago, we returned from a trip to the Middle East and wrote that “the main question engaging people with respect to the Arab Spring is no longer, ‘who’s next,’ but rather how far will Saudi Arabia go in pushing a ‘counter-revolutionary agenda’ across the [region].” Since then, something of a discussion, if not […]
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Listening to What Iranians Say about Their Nuclear Program Instead of Relying on “Intelligence” and Agenda-driven “Analysis”
As part of the current and ongoing effort to demonize further the Islamic Republic, there has been an uptick in media stories, drawing on conveniently leaked Western intelligence assessments, highlighting Tehran’s allegedly looming acquisition of nuclear weapons. One of these stories, from the Associated Press, seems particularly emblematic, so we want to look at it […]
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Iran and al-Qa’ida: Can the Charges Be Substantiated?
Last week, the Obama Administration formally charged the Islamic Republic of working with al-Qa’ida. The charge was presented as part of the Treasury Department’s announcement that it was designating six alleged al-Qa’ida operatives for terrorism-related financial sanctions. The six are being designated, according to Treasury, because of their involvement in transiting money and operatives for […]
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U.S. Sanctions and China’s Iran Policy
The Financial Times reports that Iran and China are “in talks about using a barter system to exchange Iranian oil for Chinese goods and services, as U.S. financial sanctions have blocked China from paying at least $20 billion for oil imports.” According to the story, Tehran and Beijing are now discussing how to “offset” the […]
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Oil and the Iranian-Saudi “Cold War”
One of last month’s most interesting developments in Persian Gulf power politics played out not in the Middle East, but in Vienna, Paris, and Washington. For these Western cities were the venues for an important series of exchanges that revealed much about the changing balance of power among the Middle East’s major oil producers, including […]
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America’s On-Again, Off-Again Love Affair with Iran’s Nuclear Program
An advertisement for America’s nuclear industry from the 1970s Seymour Hersh, the acclaimed journalist who, in 1970, won a Pulitzer Prize for uncovering the My Lai massacre in Vietnam and has subsequently broken many other important stories dealing with America’s foreign and national security policies (e.g., prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib), has published his most […]
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Parroting the Obama Administration’s Line on Iran and Syria
Last year, we took the Washington Post‘s Joby Warrick to task for stories he published that relied “almost entirely on unnamed U.S. officials and a known terrorist organization” to advance “Iraq-redux” claims that the Islamic Republic is seeking to build nuclear weapons. Now, Warrick published a front-page story in the Washington Post — a story […]
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Obama at AIPAC: What the Decline of American Power Means for Israel
President Obama’s speech to the annual American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) conference on Sunday predictably offered lots of “red meat” for pro-Israel constituencies. But, in heavily veiled language, the President also made an enormously important point about the evolving character of international relations in the 21st century and what that means for the United […]
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Obama on the Middle East: Sticking with a Failed Script
May 18, 2011 In an effort to define the dominant narrative about the ongoing Arab awakening and America’s role in the Middle East, President Obama will give what the White House is billing as a major address on Middle East policy. However eloquently delivered, the address will not be able to overcome or compensate for […]
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The Arab Spring and the Saudi Counter-Revolution
We return from a recent trip to the region persuaded that the main question engaging people with respect to the “Arab spring” is no longer “who’s next,” but rather “how far will Saudi Arabia go in pushing a counter-revolutionary agenda” across the Middle East? Whether Saudi Arabia is really capable of coping with the momentous […]
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Egypt, Iran, and the Middle East’s Evolving Balance of Power
The full extent of the ramifications of the extraordinary developments in Egypt since the beginning of this year — for Egypt itself, for the Middle East, and for the world — will not be clear for some time. At this juncture, though, it seems virtually certain that post-Mubarak Egypt will have a much more balanced […]
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What Does the Egyptian Revolution Mean for the United States Government?
The US has not supported democratization in Egypt, or really anywhere else in the Middle East, because US policymakers would not like the outcome of democratic processes. Policies made by governments that are freely elected by the people would not reflect, would not support, let alone enforce, the US polices that are unpopular, whether that’s […]
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The Shifting Balance of Power in the Middle East: The Cases of Egypt and Lebanon
America’s international standing is under mounting strain on multiple fronts. Nowhere is this more glaring than in the Middle East, where the balance of influence (and hence power) is shifting away from the United States and toward Iran, Turkey, and their allies. This trend may, in fact, accelerate as a consequence of ongoing unrest in […]
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After “Iran Engagement”: Bipartisan Voices Urge Obama to Embrace MEK
Predictably, the Istanbul talks have ended without positive results. And, it seems clear that the discussion came to a dead end over two issues: the Islamic Republic wanted explicit recognition of its right to enrich uranium which the United States (at least) was not prepared to do; and the United States proposed a plan for […]
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Israel’s View of the Iranian Nuclear “Threat”
Over the last few weeks, some senior figures in Israel’s national security establishment have made — in an Israeli context — relatively moderate statements about their perception of the Iranian “threat” to their country. Last month, Deputy Prime Minister (and former IDF chief of staff) Moshe Yaalon said that, because of technical difficulties and the […]
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The War Party Pushes Obama for Even More Iran Sanctions
The first issue of The Weekly Standard for 2011 includes an article by Reuel Marc Gerecht and Mark Dubowitz, entitled “The Logic of Our Iran Sanctions: Accelerate Them Now.” Gerecht and Dubowitz are both affiliated with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and are prominent voices in neoconservative circles focused on Iran. We highlight their […]
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Ashura in Istanbul
Yesterday was the 10th day of the Muslim holy month of Muharram — commemorated by Shi’a Muslims for centuries as the holy day of Ashura. (We send our best wishes to all of our readers who are observing this special time.) One of our readers highlighted something truly striking that happened yesterday, in connection with […]
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Why Should Iran Trust President Obama?
In the run-up to a new round of nuclear talks between the P5+1 and Iran on Monday, Western commentators are re-hashing old arguments that the Islamic Republic is either too politically divided or too dependent on hostility toward the United States for its legitimacy to be seriously interested in a nuclear deal. From this perspective, […]